WHY PETER OBI WILL WIN THE CASE

I'm old enough to understand the sort of politics played in Nigeria. Also, I have read 'tons' of history books to know how events always play out. Peter Obi is likely going to win at the tribunal. Not necessarily because he has unassailable evidence but to prevent Nigeria from sliding into a dangerous pit. Yes, Obi has enough evidence to win him the case any day but he isn't going to win based on the merit of his petition but to preserve Nigeria. Again, not because if Obi fails at the tribunal Igbos will automatically break away from Nigeria. No, Nigeria's breakup won't happen over night, it will take years of continuous deterioration and anarchy before it eventually implodes. That's how other countries with similar makeup broke up. Examples abound like USSR, Sudan, Ethiopia etc. Believe me, North stands to lose more than even Igbos if Tinubu perpetuates himself. I can assure you that they've become very anxious and full of trepidation about the status quo and what it portends for them going forward. They never thought that Tinubu will emerge president. Their calculation was that Tinubu will contest against Atiku, then Atiku will sweep the polls but they didn't reckon that Obi will become a force through LP. Obi's emergence truncated their plans. To worsen things for them, Wike also messed up PDP in the South. So, when they realized that Atiku had no pathway to winning, they decided to align with Tinubu. Tinubu was more calculative than them and with enormous money at his disposal. As if that wasn't bad enough, a mugu like Buhari was president. The last thing North wants is a powerful Southern president who can easily have his way. If they were uncomfortable with Tinubu before, now they're likely getting scared of him. The support Northerners are giving Tinubu now is not based on love but out of fear. The same people that stopped Awolowo and Abiola from becoming president based on what they stood for now have Tinubu who is obviously more unpredictable to contend with. They also know that Tinubu will win a straight second term if he isn't stopped. 8 years of Tinubu will definitely ensure that political and economic power is fully controlled by Yorubas. Igbos can survive such situation, at least they haven't been in power since the end of civil war. Any serious hostility in Lagos will result to divestments and reinvestment in the East. But unfortunately for North, they will have no fall back position. Political power have always been their consolation. Losing it to Yorubas will make them extremely vulnerable and their future survival in Nigeria highly uncertain. The tribunal is their last chance of stopping a state capture. Source;